Recently some group of self acclaimed local "journalists" who don't understand anything other than the incoherent local developments, came to mock my write ups on Biafran Diplomacy as presently championed by the leadership of the Indigenous People of Biafra. After reading the highly empirical decommissioned vomits, I resolved not to respond, as the foolishness of the underdeveloped nations doesn't impede on the progression of the progressive nations. So what does it mean to allot times (which is non renewable resources) to deluded elements?
With all sense of humility and thanks to ChiukwuOkikeAbiama, I will say without equivocation that I am knowledgeable in diplomatic discourses. Not as a graduate of the field, but by my post graduate passions and curiosity to diplomacy. It is true that 90% of local people in Nigeria don't care of dynamics of international politics, but this area of politicking has been my area of interest since my infant age. Therefore, I know what I am talking about, because diplomacy knows me!
HERE COMES THE ANALYSES
HOW FAR IS IPOB DOING DIPLOMATICALLY?
In the words of Shakespeare, "fair is fowl and fowl is fair". To the liberals, IPOB diplomacally deserves an accolade. To the conservatives, that accolade should not be given until Biafra is restored as a sovereign state. It is on these two juxtaposition that I will develop the discourse and equally make an inference as much as possible.
Diplomacy is a "state craft" which winners are determined according to the player's strength. Alot of things have happened that one would consider IPOB as the winner. In contemporary international politics, the world is by principle divided into two parts visa-vis China led group and US led group. While the Chinese group mostly brag on the wealth of their leader (China), especially interns of maneuvering US led sanctions. The US led group don't only brag on the wealth of US, they equally brag on the military might of US and her strong hold on many global institutions and service providing multinational giants. This later features of US led group give them an edge over Chinese group.
In Africa today, while China is making her footprints in Tanzania and few Eastern African countries, US is concentrated on Sahel and few West African countries except Nigeria.
All the African countries would want to maintain cordial relationship with US group due to the global edge the group maintains.
Same is applicable to what Nigeria would want to have. But unfortunately, the IPOB question robbed Nigeria of these great opportunity. IPOB has always played what I termed a scissors diplomacy against Nigeria. What is this scissors diplomacy all about? This is the act of destroying Nigeria's relationship with her friends internationally. In the case of US, IPOB in 2016 smartly destroyed earlier, what supposed to be a smooth relationship between the newly formed governments in US and Nigeria through the Trump Rally held in Portharcourt. As incalculable as Nigeria was, she felt into the smartly drafted plot and that redefined the US government view of the new Nigeria government of the time.
Also, the heavy agitations and protests put up by Biafrans as at the time in discourse and the barbaric response to it by the Nigeria government worsen the whole scenario. All secret pressures by the US government for Nigerian government to quickly engage IPOB leadership were rebuffed by the Nigerian government. This followed US pressure through Saudi Arabia on Nigeria which Nigeria snubbed and instead was deceived by Iran and Turkey to chart a new relation with them, Pakistan, Qatar and China. Without counting the cost, Nigeria activated full relationship with these group due to US and her team refusal to support her clamp down on IPOB and Biafrans. Here IPOB succeeded in her scissors strategies!
Nigeria felt it will be easy to snub US and survived, she never understand the global connection of US and her friends.
HERE THE COLD WAR BEGAN!
To punish Nigeria over her stupidity, US decided to use covert undoing on Nigeria which is sabotaging her monoecomy which is basically oil driven. She did this by putting pressures on Nigeria oil buyers to make alternate root. To Malaysia, she was pressured to leave and Malaysia left. To India, a waiver was extended to her to shop from Iran oil than Nigeria which India in consideration to proximity welcomed the US oil waiver on Iran. To worsen issues, Saudi Arabia being a US Allie was encouraged to pump excess crude in OPEC market in other to draw down the oil price which automatically hampers Nigeria oil revenue and comatose economy.
To survive, Nigeria ran to Britton Wood institutions (IMF and WORLD BANK) and other western lenders for loan which US blocked. A frustrated Nigeria in desperation ran to China which conditions were marshalled out for her and we're inimical to her relationship to the western nations. For instance, the Chinese Yuan swap with Naira was anti Dollar policy imposed on the headless Nigeria by China which despite what Nigerians were told of are the "benefits" is today curse to her. Today, too many aid receivable from US and her western allies to Nigeria is halted. Poor Nigeria is dying slowly and steady, courtesy of IPOB scissors diplomacy.
SAUDI ARABIA ROLL
Ordinarily, Nigeria would have done well if the government was humble enough to listen to US and others. In the arrogancy of the Aso Rock Cabals, they ran to Saudi Arabia's enemies (Iran, Turkey and Qatar) in other to avert US pressure. To Saudi Arabia, Nigeria's choice of Iran, Turkey and Qatar is meant to humiliate her footprints in Nigeria and will not be tolerated. She decided to mobilized neighbouring Arab countries like Chad, Niger Republic and others to withdraw their supports against Boko Haram and other criminal elements fighting in Northern Nigeria. Their withdrawal escalated and detoriated the northern Nigeria security situation as presently seen. Today, the entire Nigeria is ruined by insecurity and China can't do much on this as she is in here for economic exploration not security concern.
Saudi would want to teach Nigeria a lesson on what it means to make friendship with Qatar and Iran. To Saudi, if Nigeria is not dealt with, other Sahel countries will not learn. From all indications, it looks like the cabals don't care as they are still inviting Qatar and Iran reps as a retaliations against Saudi Arabia. Will Saudi encourage a proxy war in northern Nigeria as a destabilisation gamick is what I don't know. But the proliferation of lite arms and weapons in northern Nigeria is a clear indication of the fact that someone is funelling arms to northern Nigeria via the Sahel neighbors.
Saudi/Nigeria relationship is at it zero level that Nigeria pilgrims are treated badly by Saudi Arabia officials and all efforts by Nigeria to correct this is responded by Saudi Arabia officials as a voice from nuisance nation . What a shame!
HERE COMES ISRAEL
While Saudi Arabia is distancing herself from Palestinian affairs, Nigeria was deceived by Iran and turkey to champion it from Africa. To Israel, Nigeria must be treated as a threat. In various outing of the president of Nigeria, Palestinian case has been exonerated as if there is nothing else to talk about. While Iran, turkey and Pakistan welcome this naked dance of Nigeria, Israel, Egypt and gulf states view such an action as despicable and mustn't be tolerated.
Israel would not want to clearly take up Nigeria madness cure as much are waiting in future. She has announced in Chad of her intentions to join the Chadian army to combat Boko Haram which such means alot. Could this mean such Israel's operation in Syria? Where she will enter Nigeria airspace at will insearch of Boko Haram which Nigeria's attempts to react might mean what you think than what I think.
HOW WISHES TURNED TO DISAPPOINTMENTS
Nigeria foreign policy initiators were full of illusions than realities. They felt that with China, Iran, turkey and Pakistan, their problems will be solved overnight. Never! When you assume, you ass me and yourself. Nigeria is assing herself because she dared to assume! Today, those she depended on for solution on security matters are burden with other internal issues and not really interested in external engagements. Their problems.
The land disputes between China and her neighbors is making China not to be concentrating on external issues much. Beside, if China will be interested in Nigeria security challenges, I believe she would love to be partly involved on armed selling and not getting her soldiers to combat the terrorists.
Even on armed sellings, international armed treaties don't allow Nigeria to get all she wants from armed market. So to China, she would prefer economic engagement than military engagement in Nigeria. Also giving military assistance to a country US and her friends are not happy with might attract great loss to her which China is not ready to risk.
Iran is trapped in Yemen and Syria. She has loss too many of her resources in Yemen and Syria that such loss is really painful. If such a geographical proximity war could be that costly to Iran, why would her engaging militarily in Nigeria not being too expensive for her. Beside, countries fight for strategic interests, in the case of Iran, Nigeria is not a Shiite dominated country to stake for, rather a Sunni Muslim dominated state that came to her out of frustration. So Iran would want to give an advisory role than full engagements.
Pakistan got to her present mess due to her covert role in supplying Nigeria arms that United State never wanted Nigeria to have. Today, she is stripped of all the US government aid which is causing alot of hardships among Pakistanians. Also her disturbing conflicts with India poses a big diversion for her. If there is anything Pakistan is mindful of, it is watching at her arch enemy India and not Nigeria's problem.
Turkey equally has her own disturbing internal challenges. From Recep Tayyip Erdoğan party lost of popular vote in just concluded election, to the Syria crises, down to current US sanctions over the purchase Russian defence system. So, these problems are much for Turkey to mind Nigeria.
The abandoning of Nigeria due to her life threatening problems has forced Nigeria considering replacing Russia (which is British arch enemy) with Britain. From BREXIT, to Northern Ireland crises, down to Gibraltar crises with Spain are already huge challenges to Nigeria mother aka Britain. No wonder no one can effectively lobby for Nigeria as those British diplomats previously standing for Nigeria are now focusing on their parent nation internal problems, abandoning Nigeria to fate. What a horror days ahead!
CAN RUSSIA SAVE?
Present Nigeria decision to go to Russia will attract attack from Britain against Nigeria. Whatever be the development that forced Nigeria to go to Russia now is a serious issue.
No time in history of Nigeria has she been made an international outcast than this dispensation of IPOB. Could it be said that IPOB is eaten up Nigeria internally for natural demise of Nigeria? Having enumerated these comatose state of Nigeria which IPOB has forced her into, I can now see reasons the anger fetted cabals see IPOB as a terrorist group which the world laughed at. What Nigeria don't understand is that IPOB is pushing her towards her demise without a gun shot. How Nigeria will survive this hypersonic intelligence of IPOB is what I don't know.